Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 76-77°F on October 27?
3 of 3 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 84¢ · $301 held · ends Oct 27
⚖️
Neutral
No
3
No 100%
$301.49
-$9.31
86.5¢ → 84.2¢
-3% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 84%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 3 top traders (100%)1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed | Noavg 84.4¢ | $186.26 | $185.79 | -$0.47 | 53% 6132-5384 (11516) |
24 241532532432 | Noavg 90.6¢ | $104.24 | $96.84 | -$7.4 | 61% 1497-943 (2440) |
 Istaroth<$100 | Noavg 86.3¢ | $21.26 | $18.86 | -$1.45 | 36% 273-477 (750) |
Chat
Sign in with your wallet to post.
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
84.2¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.