Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (60%). 2 of 2 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 80-81°F on October 26?

2 of 2 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (100%) · Yes at 40¢ · $577 held · ends Oct 26

Yes40¢No60¢Ends Mon, Oct 26, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 100%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$577.14

Combined PnL

$137.26

Smart Money Entry

32.7¢ → 40¢

+22% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 40%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢0.30–0.50 lost −6.5 % a trade pooled (n 2,793), a little worse than the plain consensus.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

2 of 2 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 60%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes40%

No60%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes2 traders

Total Value$489.24

Total Shares1,207

Combined PnL+$137.26

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98CTR	Yesavg 32.6¢	$309.69	$432.47	+$122.78	47% 497-554 (1051)
IstarothARB<$100	Noavg 71.6¢	$87.98	$87.9	+$1.11	53% 269-238 (507)
└ No leg	Noavg 71.6¢	$59.97	$50.23	-$9.74
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 31.7¢	$26.52	$37.67	+$10.85
fildoroCTR<$100	Yesavg 33.5¢	$42.3	$56.78	+$14.48	64% 416-231 (647)

0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98CTR

Yes

Invested

$309.69

Value

$432.47

PnL

+$122.78

Record

47%

497-554 (1051)

IstarothARB<$100

Invested

$87.98

Value

$87.9

PnL

+$1.11

Record

53%

269-238 (507)

Both legs:

No$59.9771.6¢-$9.74

Yes$26.5231.7¢+$10.85

fildoroCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$42.3

Value

$56.78

PnL

+$14.48

Record

64%

416-231 (647)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 40%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢0.30–0.50 lost −6.5 % a trade pooled (n 2,793), a little worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

2 of 2 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 60%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance42.2%

40.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$136.91

Max Loss

-$100.00

236.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.