Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 82-83°F on October 25?

4 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 79¢ · $1K held · ended Oct 25

Yes21¢No79¢Ended Sun, Oct 25, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 100%

Total Value

$1.2K

Combined PnL

$33.47

Smart Money Entry

77.3¢ → 79.5¢

+3% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 79%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 4 top traders (100%)2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes21%

No79%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No4 traders

Total Value$1.2K

Total Shares1,558

Combined PnL+$33.47

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0	Noavg 75.3¢	$640.45	$676.5	+$36.05	52% 514-469 (983)
HE hello.67	Noavg 79.9¢	$548.89	$545.81	-$3.08	50% 1569-1544 (3113)
Istaroth<$100	Noavg 75¢	$10.1	$10	-$0.1	54% 264-222 (486)
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100	Noavg 74¢	$8.11	$8.71	+$0.6	—

0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0

Invested

$640.45

Value

$676.5

PnL

+$36.05

Record

52%

514-469 (983)

hello.67

Invested

$548.89

Value

$545.81

PnL

-$3.08

Record

50%

1569-1544 (3113)

Istaroth<$100

Invested

$10.1

Value

$10

PnL

-$0.1

Record

54%

264-222 (486)

0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100

Invested

$8.11

Value

$8.71

PnL

+$0.6

Record

—

Research grade

NeutralNo at 79%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 4 top traders (100%)2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance81.3%

79.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$23.02

Max Loss

-$100.00

123.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.