Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (64%). 2 of 3 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on October 27?
2 of 3 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (67%) · Yes at 36¢ · $135 held · ends Oct 27
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
3
Yes 67%
$135.33
-$5
38.4¢ → 36¢
-6% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 36%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Side priced 30–50¢0.30–0.50 lost −6.5 % a trade pooled (n 2,793), a little worse than the plain consensus.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 3 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors No 64%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
24 241532532432CTR | Yesavg 38.9¢ | $128.48 | $119.05 | -$9.43 | 61% 1506-947 (2453) |
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed | Noavg 75.5¢ | $138.12 | $12.52 | +$2.75 | 53% 6207-5451 (11658) |
GH ghorrockCTR<$100 | Yesavg 23.5¢ | $3.63 | $3.76 | +$1.68 | 57% 12861-9776 (22637) |
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
36.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.