Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (69%). 2 of 2 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on October 27?
2 of 2 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 31¢ · $413 held · ends Oct 27
⚖️
Neutral
No
2
No 100%
1 arb excluded
$413.49
$3.91
Research grade
NeutralNo at 31%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Side priced 30–50¢0.30–0.50 lost −6.5 % a trade pooled (n 2,793), a little worse than the plain consensus.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 2 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 69%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
24 241532532432ARB<$100 | Yesavg 49.6¢ | $436.66 | $378.7 | -$185.02 | 61% 1506-947 (2453) |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 49.6¢ | $212.49 | $295.32 | -$80.97 | |
| └ No leg | Noavg 69.7¢ | $187.43 | $83.38 | -$104.05 | |
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR<$100 | Noavg 43.5¢ | $84.26 | $25.81 | +$9.3 | 53% 6207-5451 (11658) |
GH ghorrockCTR<$100 | Noavg 49.5¢ | $14.42 | $8.98 | -$5.39 | 57% 12861-9776 (22637) |
Invested
$436.66
Value
$378.7
PnL
-$185.02
Record
61%
1506-947 (2453)
Both legs:
Invested
$84.26
Value
$25.81
PnL
+$9.3
Record
53%
6207-5451 (11658)
Invested
$14.42
Value
$8.98
PnL
-$5.39
Record
57%
12861-9776 (22637)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
31.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.