Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (71%). 2 of 2 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 10°C on October 28?
2 of 2 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (100%) · Yes at 29¢ · $211 held · ends Oct 28
⚠️
Avoid
Yes
2
Yes 100%
$211.26
-$23.35
23.8¢ → 29.3¢
+23% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
AvoidYes at 29%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Longshots (0.05–0.30) lost −29.5 % a trade pooled (n 1,625; −22 % in spring, −35 % in October): the strongest effect in the backtests.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 2 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 71%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0CTR | Yesavg 23.9¢ | $1.1K | $208.98 | -$23.35 | 52% 549-504 (1053) |
HE hello.67CTR<$100 | Yesavg 19¢ | $2.28 | $2.28 | +$0 | 50% 1613-1600 (3213) |
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
29.3¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.