Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 13°C on October 26?

3 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold No (75%) · No at 98¢ · $97 held · ends Oct 26

Yes2¢No98¢Ends Mon, Oct 26, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 75%

Total Value

$97.38

Combined PnL

-$6.27

Research grade

NeutralNo at 98%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 4 top traders (75%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes2%

No98%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No3 traders

Total Value$96.24

Total Shares96

Combined PnL-$3.3

Yes1 trader

Total Value$1.13

Total Shares52

Combined PnL-$2.97

No — 75%Yes — 25%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
Istaroth<$100	Noavg 97.8¢	$72.49	$65.61	-$6.09	51% 269-258 (527)
0X 0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98<$100	Noavg 84.1¢	$16.82	$19.56	+$2.74	47% 502-558 (1060)
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed<$100	Noavg 96.6¢	$11.02	$11.07	+$0.06	56% 3466-2703 (6169)
0X 0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658CTR<$100	Yesavg 8¢	$4.11	$1.13	-$2.97	49% 66-68 (134)

Istaroth<$100

Invested

$72.49

Value

$65.61

PnL

-$6.09

Record

51%

269-258 (527)

0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98<$100

Invested

$16.82

Value

$19.56

PnL

+$2.74

Record

47%

502-558 (1060)

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed<$100

Invested

$11.02

Value

$11.07

PnL

+$0.06

Record

56%

3466-2703 (6169)

0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$4.11

Value

$1.13

PnL

-$2.97

Record

49%

66-68 (134)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 98%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 4 top traders (75%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance98.9%

97.8¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$1.15

Max Loss

-$100.00

101.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.