Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 12°C on October 26?

5 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (83%) · Yes at 90¢ · $259 held · ends Oct 26

Yes90¢No10¢Ends Mon, Oct 26, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 83%

Total Value

$258.88

Combined PnL

$26.23

Smart Money Entry

52.2¢ → 90¢

+72% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 90%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

5 of 6 top traders (83%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes90%

No10%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes5 traders

Total Value$257.84

Total Shares281

Combined PnL+$26.34

No1 trader

Total Value$1.04

Total Shares9

Combined PnL-$0.11

Yes — 83%No — 17%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 78%

Freshness

Mature

38h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

80% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 78% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 1

Aligned

sharpYes 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrYes 67% · 3

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 67% · 3

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
fildoro	Yesavg 32.7¢	$43.28	$119	+$3.66	64% 418-231 (649)
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100	Yesavg 78.6¢	$68.21	$76.54	+$8.33	38% 67-108 (175)
Istaroth<$100	Yesavg 58¢	$47.31	$45.01	-$0.34	52% 269-246 (515)
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed<$100	Yesavg 39¢	$13.33	$11.03	+$14.69	56% 3416-2671 (6087)
00 0x005e...6d8e<$100	Yesavg 89¢	$6.27	$6.27	+$0	—
HE HellYeahTraderCTR<$100	Noavg 12.2¢	$1.15	$1.04	-$0.11	55% 137-110 (247)

fildoro

Yes

Invested

$43.28

Value

$119

PnL

+$3.66

Record

64%

418-231 (649)

0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100

Yes

Invested

$68.21

Value

$76.54

PnL

+$8.33

Record

38%

67-108 (175)

Istaroth<$100

Yes

Invested

$47.31

Value

$45.01

PnL

-$0.34

Record

52%

269-246 (515)

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed<$100

Yes

Invested

$13.33

Value

$11.03

PnL

+$14.69

Record

56%

3416-2671 (6087)

0x005e...6d8e<$100

Yes

Invested

$6.27

Value

$6.27

PnL

+$0

Record

—

HellYeahTraderCTR<$100

Invested

$1.15

Value

$1.04

PnL

-$0.11

Record

55%

137-110 (247)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 90%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

5 of 6 top traders (83%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 78%

Freshness

Mature

38h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

80% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 78% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 1

Aligned

sharpYes 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrYes 67% · 3

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 67% · 3

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance91.4%

90.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$9.40

Max Loss

-$100.00

109.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.