Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 4 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 11°C on October 26?
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (80%) · Yes at 0.5¢ · $44 held · ends Oct 26
⚠️
Avoid
Yes
5
Yes 80%
$43.76
-$333.07
37.5¢ → 0.5¢
-99% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
AvoidYes at 1%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Longshots (0.05–0.30) lost −29.5 % a trade pooled (n 1,625; −22 % in spring, −35 % in October): the strongest effect in the backtests.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 69%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
80% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 69% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Istaroth<$100 | Noavg 55.3¢ | $25.95 | $25.74 | -$0.1 | 52% 269-246 (515) |
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023CTR<$100 | Yesavg 25.8¢ | $21.03 | $11.7 | -$9.33 | 38% 67-108 (175) |
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR<$100 | Yesavg 25.9¢ | $45.08 | $5.2 | -$26.24 | 56% 3416-2671 (6087) |
0X 0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98CTR | Yesavg 50.1¢ | $286.15 | $0.86 | -$285.29 | 47% 499-555 (1054) |
HE HellYeahTraderCTR<$100 | Yesavg 7¢ | $12.37 | $0.27 | -$12.1 | 55% 137-110 (247) |
Istaroth<$100Invested
$25.95
Value
$25.74
PnL
-$0.1
Record
52%
269-246 (515)
Invested
$21.03
Value
$11.7
PnL
-$9.33
Record
38%
67-108 (175)
Invested
$45.08
Value
$5.2
PnL
-$26.24
Record
56%
3416-2671 (6087)
Invested
$286.15
Value
$0.86
PnL
-$285.29
Record
47%
499-555 (1054)
Invested
$12.37
Value
$0.27
PnL
-$12.1
Record
55%
137-110 (247)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
0.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.