Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 11°C on October 25?

3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (60%) · Yes at 72¢ · $881 held · ends Oct 25

Yes72¢No28¢Ends Sun, Oct 25, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 60%

Total Value

$881.3

Combined PnL

$256.19

Smart Money Entry

48.9¢ → 72¢

+47% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 72%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes72%

No28%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes3 traders

Total Value$816

Total Shares1,152

Combined PnL+$263.68

No2 traders

Total Value$65.3

Total Shares179

Combined PnL-$7.49

Yes — 60%No — 40%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0	Yesavg 44¢	$372.46	$621.39	+$248.93	53% 504-456 (960)
0X 0x9506e646497107cabf2d5b941a8e6a60d0db1c4f	Yesavg 64¢	$151.03	$149.9	+$5.95	54% 467-405 (872)
HE HellYeahTraderCTR<$100	Noavg 36¢	$56.44	$57.22	-$7.05	55% 105-85 (190)
fildoro<$100	Yesavg 56¢	$39.43	$44.71	+$8.8	60% 339-230 (569)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Noavg 40.4¢	$17.65	$8.08	-$0.44	65% 6460-3412 (9872)

0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0

Yes

Invested

$372.46

Value

$621.39

PnL

+$248.93

Record

53%

504-456 (960)

0x9506e646497107cabf2d5b941a8e6a60d0db1c4f

Yes

Invested

$151.03

Value

$149.9

PnL

+$5.95

Record

54%

467-405 (872)

HellYeahTraderCTR<$100

Invested

$56.44

Value

$57.22

PnL

-$7.05

Record

55%

105-85 (190)

fildoro<$100

Yes

Invested

$39.43

Value

$44.71

PnL

+$8.8

Record

60%

339-230 (569)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Invested

$17.65

Value

$8.08

PnL

-$0.44

Record

65%

6460-3412 (9872)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 72%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance74.0%

72.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$35.16

Max Loss

-$100.00

135.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.