Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (71%). 2 of 2 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on October 27?

2 of 2 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (100%) · Yes at 29¢ · $500 held · ends Oct 27

Yes29¢No71¢Ends Tue, Oct 27, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 100%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$499.59

Combined PnL

$117.12

Smart Money Entry

13.9¢ → 29¢

+108% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

AvoidYes at 29%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.

Consensus side under 30¢Longshots (0.05–0.30) lost −29.5 % a trade pooled (n 1,625; −22 % in spring, −35 % in October): the strongest effect in the backtests.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

2 of 2 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 71%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes29%

No71%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes2 traders

Total Value$289.58

Total Shares967

Combined PnL+$117.12

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
IstarothARB<$100	Noavg 84.8¢	$212.5	$210.01	-$1.88	38% 273-442 (715)
└ No leg	Noavg 84.8¢	$178	$149.11	-$28.93
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 16¢	$33.61	$60.9	+$27.05
0X 0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0CTR	Yesavg 16.8¢	$97	$204.69	+$71.17	52% 551-504 (1055)
24 241532532432CTR<$100	Yesavg 6¢	$21.89	$84.88	+$45.96	61% 1479-934 (2413)

IstarothARB<$100

Invested

$212.5

Value

$210.01

PnL

-$1.88

Record

38%

273-442 (715)

Both legs:

No$17884.8¢-$28.93

Yes$33.6116¢+$27.05

0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0CTR

Yes

Invested

$97

Value

$204.69

PnL

+$71.17

Record

52%

551-504 (1055)

241532532432CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$21.89

Value

$84.88

PnL

+$45.96

Record

61%

1479-934 (2413)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 29%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.

Consensus side under 30¢Longshots (0.05–0.30) lost −29.5 % a trade pooled (n 1,625; −22 % in spring, −35 % in October): the strongest effect in the backtests.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

2 of 2 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 71%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance31.1%

29.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$222.06

Max Loss

-$100.00

322.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.