Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C on October 26?
4 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 79¢ · $4K held · ends Oct 26
⚖️
Neutral
No
4
No 100%
1 arb excluded
$3.7K
$616.71
64.1¢ → 78.5¢
+22% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 79%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 4 top traders (100%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 96%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 96% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HE hello.67 | Noavg 64¢ | $2.2K | $2.7K | +$483.28 | 50% 1569-1544 (3113) |
0X 0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0 | Noavg 61.6¢ | $491.31 | $622.28 | +$130.97 | 52% 514-471 (985) |
 IstarothARB<$100 | Noavg 64.6¢ | $249.78 | $252.3 | +$3.15 | 54% 264-227 (491) |
| └ No leg | Noavg 64.6¢ | $159.7 | $190.47 | +$30.77 | |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 36.1¢ | $89.41 | $61.84 | -$27.62 | |
HE HellYeahTrader | Noavg 75.7¢ | $146.22 | $148.69 | +$2.47 | 55% 121-99 (220) |
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100 | Noavg 77¢ | $5.54 | $5.54 | +$0 | 49% 378-389 (767) |
Invested
$2,208.82
Value
$2.7K
PnL
+$483.28
Record
50%
1569-1544 (3113)
Invested
$491.31
Value
$622.28
PnL
+$130.97
Record
52%
514-471 (985)
IstarothARB<$100Invested
$249.78
Value
$252.3
PnL
+$3.15
Record
54%
264-227 (491)
Both legs:
Invested
$146.22
Value
$148.69
PnL
+$2.47
Record
55%
121-99 (220)
Invested
$5.54
Value
$5.54
PnL
+$0
Record
49%
378-389 (767)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
78.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.