Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (60%). 3 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C on October 26?

3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (60%) · Yes at 41¢ · $195 held · ends Oct 26

Yes41¢No59¢Ends Mon, Oct 26, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 60%

Total Value

$194.59

Combined PnL

$13.67

Smart Money Entry

57.7¢ → 40.5¢

-30% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 41%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Side priced 30–50¢0.30–0.50 lost −6.5 % a trade pooled (n 2,793), a little worse than the plain consensus.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 5 top traders (60%)Underdog side (market favors No 60%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes41%

No60%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes3 traders

Total Value$192.17

Total Shares284

Combined PnL+$13.71

No2 traders

Total Value$2.42

Total Shares7

Combined PnL-$0.04

Yes — 60%No — 40%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HE HellYeahTraderCTR	Yesavg 58¢	$131.99	$143.42	+$11.43	55% 151-124 (275)
IstarothCTR<$100	Yesavg 60.5¢	$39.14	$36.4	-$0.41	49% 269-276 (545)
0X 0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658CTR<$100	Yesavg 49.3¢	$9.67	$12.35	+$2.68	47% 67-77 (144)
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed<$100	Noavg 43¢	$1.54	$1.33	-$0.22	54% 4556-3891 (8447)
0X 0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0<$100	Noavg 31¢	$0.92	$1.1	+$0.18	52% 536-490 (1026)

HellYeahTraderCTR

Yes

Invested

$131.99

Value

$143.42

PnL

+$11.43

Record

55%

151-124 (275)

IstarothCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$39.14

Value

$36.4

PnL

-$0.41

Record

49%

269-276 (545)

0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$9.67

Value

$12.35

PnL

+$2.68

Record

47%

67-77 (144)

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed<$100

Invested

$1.54

Value

$1.33

PnL

-$0.22

Record

54%

4556-3891 (8447)

0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0<$100

Invested

$0.92

Value

$1.1

PnL

+$0.18

Record

52%

536-490 (1026)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 41%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Side priced 30–50¢0.30–0.50 lost −6.5 % a trade pooled (n 2,793), a little worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 5 top traders (60%)Underdog side (market favors No 60%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance42.7%

40.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$134.12

Max Loss

-$100.00

234.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.