Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (85%). 2 of 3 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 58-59°F on October 26?
2 of 3 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (67%) · Yes at 15¢ · $112 held · ends Oct 26
⚠️
Avoid
Yes
3
Yes 67%
$111.69
-$7.71
Research grade
AvoidYes at 15%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Longshots (0.05–0.30) lost −29.5 % a trade pooled (n 1,625; −22 % in spring, −35 % in October): the strongest effect in the backtests.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 3 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors No 85%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Istaroth<$100 | Noavg 81.2¢ | $87.91 | $86.09 | -$0.7 | 49% 269-278 (547) |
HE HellYeahTraderCTR<$100 | Yesavg 22¢ | $29.01 | $22.42 | -$6.59 | 55% 152-125 (277) |
24 241532532432CTR<$100 | Yesavg 17¢ | $3.6 | $3.18 | -$0.42 | — |
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
15.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.