Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (98%). 2 of 2 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 54-55°F on October 26?
2 of 2 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 1.8¢ · $9 held · ended Oct 26
⚠️
Avoid
No
2
No 100%
$9.22
-$38.84
53.8¢ → 1.8¢
-97% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
AvoidNo at 2%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Longshots (0.05–0.30) lost −29.5 % a trade pooled (n 1,625; −22 % in spring, −35 % in October): the strongest effect in the backtests.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 2 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 98%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
24 241532532432CTR | Noavg 42.9¢ | $155.61 | $5.38 | +$29.34 | 61% 1479-934 (2413) |
HE HellYeahTraderCTR | Noavg 69¢ | $72.02 | $3.84 | -$68.18 | 55% 191-155 (346) |
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
1.8¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.