Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 6 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 86-87°F on October 27?
6 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (100%) · Yes at 0.1¢ · $0 held · ends Oct 27
⚠️
Avoid
Yes
6
Yes 100%
$0.15
-$27.1
Research grade
AvoidYes at 0%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Longshots (0.05–0.30) lost −29.5 % a trade pooled (n 1,625; −22 % in spring, −35 % in October): the strongest effect in the backtests.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 6 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
6 traders
Top 2 hold 37%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 37% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
TY TyshaCTR<$100 | Yesavg 8.4¢ | $5.35 | $0.03 | -$5.31 | 73% 7828-2878 (10706) |
ZE zerone777CTR<$100 | Yesavg 9.1¢ | $4.55 | $0.03 | -$4.52 | 44% 370-466 (836) |
LI LikaseentCTR<$100 | Yesavg 9.1¢ | $4.55 | $0.03 | -$4.52 | 32% 173-361 (534) |
KA kaxel78CTR<$100 | Yesavg 9.1¢ | $4.27 | $0.02 | -$4.25 | 34% 234-450 (684) |
AK akrollCTR<$100 | Yesavg 9.1¢ | $4.27 | $0.02 | -$4.25 | 35% 289-533 (822) |
KL klli27CTR<$100 | Yesavg 9.1¢ | $4.27 | $0.02 | -$4.25 | 34% 262-516 (778) |
Invested
$5.35
Value
$0.03
PnL
-$5.31
Record
73%
7828-2878 (10706)
Invested
$4.55
Value
$0.03
PnL
-$4.52
Record
44%
370-466 (836)
Invested
$4.55
Value
$0.03
PnL
-$4.52
Record
32%
173-361 (534)
Invested
$4.27
Value
$0.02
PnL
-$4.25
Record
34%
234-450 (684)
Invested
$4.27
Value
$0.02
PnL
-$4.25
Record
35%
289-533 (822)
Invested
$4.27
Value
$0.02
PnL
-$4.25
Record
34%
262-516 (778)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.