Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 84-85°F on October 27?

8 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold No (80%) · No at 92¢ · $354 held · ends Oct 27

Yes9¢No91¢Ends Tue, Oct 27, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 80%

Total Value

$353.83

Combined PnL

-$6.47

Smart Money Entry

92.1¢ → 91.5¢

-1% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 92%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

8 of 10 top traders (80%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes9%

No92%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No8 traders

Total Value$336.87

Total Shares382

Combined PnL-$15.05

Yes2 traders

Total Value$16.96

Total Shares156

Combined PnL+$8.58

No — 80%Yes — 20%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
LI Likaseent<$100	Noavg 92.1¢	$46.05	$44.1	-$1.95	33% 173-357 (530)
ZE zerone777<$100	Noavg 92.1¢	$46.06	$44.1	-$1.96	44% 370-466 (836)
VA Vale54holi<$100	Noavg 92.1¢	$43.28	$41.45	-$1.83	32% 149-324 (473)
PO pollo07<$100	Noavg 92.2¢	$43.32	$41.45	-$1.88	34% 289-553 (842)
KL klli27<$100	Noavg 92.2¢	$43.32	$41.45	-$1.88	34% 262-511 (773)
AL alex20011<$100	Noavg 92.3¢	$43.35	$41.45	-$1.91	49% 3380-3589 (6969)
AK akroll<$100	Noavg 91.8¢	$43.16	$41.45	-$1.72	35% 289-528 (817)
KA kaxel78<$100	Noavg 92.3¢	$43.37	$41.45	-$1.93	34% 233-444 (677)
24 241532532432CTR<$100	Yesavg 5.7¢	$1.14	$10.92	+$8.11	61% 1460-920 (2380)
TY TyshaCTR<$100	Yesavg 8.4¢	$5.57	$6.04	+$0.47	73% 7823-2878 (10701)

Likaseent<$100

Invested

$46.05

Value

$44.1

PnL

-$1.95

Record

33%

173-357 (530)

zerone777<$100

Invested

$46.06

Value

$44.1

PnL

-$1.96

Record

44%

370-466 (836)

Vale54holi<$100

Invested

$43.28

Value

$41.45

PnL

-$1.83

Record

32%

149-324 (473)

pollo07<$100

Invested

$43.32

Value

$41.45

PnL

-$1.88

Record

34%

289-553 (842)

klli27<$100

Invested

$43.32

Value

$41.45

PnL

-$1.88

Record

34%

262-511 (773)

alex20011<$100

Invested

$43.35

Value

$41.45

PnL

-$1.91

Record

49%

3380-3589 (6969)

akroll<$100

Invested

$43.16

Value

$41.45

PnL

-$1.72

Record

35%

289-528 (817)

kaxel78<$100

Invested

$43.37

Value

$41.45

PnL

-$1.93

Record

34%

233-444 (677)

241532532432CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.14

Value

$10.92

PnL

+$8.11

Record

61%

1460-920 (2380)

TyshaCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$5.57

Value

$6.04

PnL

+$0.47

Record

73%

7823-2878 (10701)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 92%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Smart Money Signal

8 of 10 top traders (80%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance92.8%

91.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$7.70

Max Loss

-$100.00

107.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.