Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (56%). 1 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 82-83°F on October 27?

1 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (17%) · Yes at 44¢ · $473 held · ends Oct 27

Yes44¢No56¢Ends Tue, Oct 27, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 17%

Total Value

$473.07

Combined PnL

$134.81

Research grade

NeutralYes at 44%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢0.30–0.50 lost −6.5 % a trade pooled (n 2,793), a little worse than the plain consensus.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

1 of 6 top traders (17%)Underdog side (market favors No 56%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes44%

No56%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes1 trader

Total Value$336.8

Total Shares757

Combined PnL+$146.03

No5 traders

Total Value$136.27

Total Shares179

Combined PnL-$11.21

Yes — 17%No — 83%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0CTR	Yesavg 25.2¢	$190.78	$336.8	+$146.03	52% 538-490 (1028)
TY Tysha<$100	Noavg 84.1¢	$53.46	$48	-$5.46	73% 7775-2807 (10582)
Istaroth<$100	Noavg 83¢	$49.14	$44.14	-$0.94	49% 269-278 (547)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 71.6¢	$23.13	$20.99	-$2.14	56% 10997-8571 (19568)
CE 0xce0b...b974<$100	Noavg 61.8¢	$18.84	$17.08	-$1.76	—
0X 0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100	Noavg 87¢	$6.97	$6.05	-$0.92	47% 68-78 (146)

0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0CTR

Yes

Invested

$190.78

Value

$336.8

PnL

+$146.03

Record

52%

538-490 (1028)

Tysha<$100

Invested

$53.46

Value

$48

PnL

-$5.46

Record

73%

7775-2807 (10582)

Istaroth<$100

Invested

$49.14

Value

$44.14

PnL

-$0.94

Record

49%

269-278 (547)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$23.13

Value

$20.99

PnL

-$2.14

Record

56%

10997-8571 (19568)

0xce0b...b974<$100

Invested

$18.84

Value

$17.08

PnL

-$1.76

Record

—

0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100

Invested

$6.97

Value

$6.05

PnL

-$0.92

Record

47%

68-78 (146)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 44%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢0.30–0.50 lost −6.5 % a trade pooled (n 2,793), a little worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

1 of 6 top traders (17%)Underdog side (market favors No 56%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance46.2%

44.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$116.27

Max Loss

-$100.00

216.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.