Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (59%). 2 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 80-81°F on October 27?

2 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (33%) · Yes at 42¢ · $479 held · ends Oct 27

Yes42¢No58¢Ends Tue, Oct 27, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 33%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$479.14

Combined PnL

$14.49

Smart Money Entry

37.2¢ → 41.5¢

+12% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 42%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢0.30–0.50 lost −6.5 % a trade pooled (n 2,793), a little worse than the plain consensus.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

2 of 6 top traders (33%)Underdog side (market favors No 59%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes42%

No59%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes2 traders

Total Value$334.9

Total Shares859

Combined PnL+$15.71

No4 traders

Total Value$89

Total Shares147

Combined PnL-$1.22

Yes — 33%No — 67%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0CTR	Yesavg 36.9¢	$309.59	$327.25	+$17.66	52% 538-490 (1028)
IstarothARB<$100	Noavg 62.3¢	$55.76	$55.24	-$0.24	49% 269-278 (547)
└ No leg	Noavg 62.3¢	$34.4	$34.25	-$0.16
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 38.1¢	$21.03	$20.99	-$0.08
TY Tysha<$100	Noavg 67¢	$42.28	$38.49	-$3.79	73% 7767-2805 (10572)
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed<$100	Noavg 56¢	$22.96	$25.01	+$2.05	54% 4740-4091 (8831)
0X 0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100	Noavg 60.1¢	$17.69	$17.95	+$0.25	47% 68-78 (146)
balthazarCTR<$100	Yesavg 48.9¢	$9.6	$7.65	-$1.95	63% 16296-9616 (25912)
CE 0xce0b...b974<$100	Noavg 55¢	$7.29	$7.55	+$0.26	—

0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0CTR

Yes

Invested

$309.59

Value

$327.25

PnL

+$17.66

Record

52%

538-490 (1028)

IstarothARB<$100

Invested

$55.76

Value

$55.24

PnL

-$0.24

Record

49%

269-278 (547)

Both legs:

No$34.462.3¢-$0.16

Yes$21.0338.1¢-$0.08

Tysha<$100

Invested

$42.28

Value

$38.49

PnL

-$3.79

Record

73%

7767-2805 (10572)

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed<$100

Invested

$22.96

Value

$25.01

PnL

+$2.05

Record

54%

4740-4091 (8831)

0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100

Invested

$17.69

Value

$17.95

PnL

+$0.25

Record

47%

68-78 (146)

balthazarCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$9.6

Value

$7.65

PnL

-$1.95

Record

63%

16296-9616 (25912)

0xce0b...b974<$100

Invested

$7.29

Value

$7.55

PnL

+$0.26

Record

—

Research grade

NeutralYes at 42%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢0.30–0.50 lost −6.5 % a trade pooled (n 2,793), a little worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

2 of 6 top traders (33%)Underdog side (market favors No 59%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance43.7%

41.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$128.72

Max Loss

-$100.00

228.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.