Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (90%). 3 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 78-79°F on October 27?

3 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (50%) · Yes at 10¢ · $180 held · ends Oct 27

Yes10¢No90¢Ends Tue, Oct 27, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 50%

Total Value

$179.55

Combined PnL

$18.96

Smart Money Entry

27.8¢ → 10¢

-64% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

AvoidYes at 10%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.

Consensus side under 30¢Longshots (0.05–0.30) lost −29.5 % a trade pooled (n 1,625; −22 % in spring, −35 % in October): the strongest effect in the backtests.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 6 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors No 90%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes10%

No90%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes3 traders

Total Value$122.69

Total Shares404

Combined PnL+$10.22

No3 traders

Total Value$56.86

Total Shares85

Combined PnL+$8.74

Yes — 50%No — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0CTR	Yesavg 28.9¢	$108.06	$110.43	+$2.38	52% 536-490 (1026)
TY Tysha<$100	Noavg 56.4¢	$35.58	$37.38	+$1.8	73% 7767-2805 (10572)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 84.4¢	$16.87	$18.08	+$1.21	56% 10997-8571 (19568)
balthazarCTR<$100	Yesavg 15¢	$3	$8.15	+$5.15	63% 16296-9616 (25912)
0X 0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658CTR<$100	Yesavg 14¢	$1.41	$4.11	+$2.7	47% 68-78 (146)
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed<$100	Noavg 70.4¢	$17.94	$1.4	+$5.73	54% 4740-4091 (8831)

0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0CTR

Yes

Invested

$108.06

Value

$110.43

PnL

+$2.38

Record

52%

536-490 (1026)

Tysha<$100

Invested

$35.58

Value

$37.38

PnL

+$1.8

Record

73%

7767-2805 (10572)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$16.87

Value

$18.08

PnL

+$1.21

Record

56%

10997-8571 (19568)

balthazarCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

Value

$8.15

PnL

+$5.15

Record

63%

16296-9616 (25912)

0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.41

Value

$4.11

PnL

+$2.7

Record

47%

68-78 (146)

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed<$100

Invested

$17.94

Value

$1.4

PnL

+$5.73

Record

54%

4740-4091 (8831)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 10%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.

Consensus side under 30¢Longshots (0.05–0.30) lost −29.5 % a trade pooled (n 1,625; −22 % in spring, −35 % in October): the strongest effect in the backtests.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 6 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors No 90%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance11.5%

10.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$770.36

Max Loss

-$100.00

870.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.