Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 5 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 76-77°F on October 27?

5 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (83%) · Yes at 0.4¢ · $46 held · ends Oct 27

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Tue, Oct 27, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 83%

Total Value

$45.79

Combined PnL

-$19.89

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.

Consensus side under 30¢Longshots (0.05–0.30) lost −29.5 % a trade pooled (n 1,625; −22 % in spring, −35 % in October): the strongest effect in the backtests.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

5 of 6 top traders (83%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No1 trader

Total Value$44.96

Total Shares45

Combined PnL+$1.08

Yes5 traders

Total Value$0.84

Total Shares240

Combined PnL-$20.97

No — 17%Yes — 83%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 42%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

83% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 42% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNo 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 83% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
24 241532532432<$100	Noavg 97¢	$43.65	$44.96	+$1.08	61% 1475-932 (2407)
ZE zerone777CTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$4.55	$0.18	-$4.37	44% 370-466 (836)
LI LikaseentCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$4.55	$0.18	-$4.37	32% 173-361 (534)
AK akrollCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$4.27	$0.16	-$4.11	35% 289-533 (822)
KL klli27CTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$4.27	$0.16	-$4.11	34% 262-516 (778)
KA kaxel78CTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$4.17	$0.16	-$4.01	34% 234-450 (684)

241532532432<$100

Invested

$43.65

Value

$44.96

PnL

+$1.08

Record

61%

1475-932 (2407)

zerone777CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$4.55

Value

$0.18

PnL

-$4.37

Record

44%

370-466 (836)

LikaseentCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$4.55

Value

$0.18

PnL

-$4.37

Record

32%

173-361 (534)

akrollCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$4.27

Value

$0.16

PnL

-$4.11

Record

35%

289-533 (822)

klli27CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$4.27

Value

$0.16

PnL

-$4.11

Record

34%

262-516 (778)

kaxel78CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$4.17

Value

$0.16

PnL

-$4.01

Record

34%

234-450 (684)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.

Consensus side under 30¢Longshots (0.05–0.30) lost −29.5 % a trade pooled (n 1,625; −22 % in spring, −35 % in October): the strongest effect in the backtests.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

5 of 6 top traders (83%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 42%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

83% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 42% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNo 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 83% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.4%

0.4¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$6959.21

Max Loss

-$100.00

7059.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.