Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (63%). 3 of 4 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 80-81°F on October 26?

3 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (75%) · Yes at 38¢ · $2K held · ends Oct 26

Yes38¢No62¢Ends Mon, Oct 26, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 75%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$1.5K

Combined PnL

$13.92

Smart Money Entry

38.4¢ → 37.5¢

-2% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 38%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Side priced 30–50¢0.30–0.50 lost −6.5 % a trade pooled (n 2,793), a little worse than the plain consensus.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 4 top traders (75%)Underdog side (market favors No 63%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes38%

No63%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes3 traders

Total Value$183.73

Total Shares449

Combined PnL+$6

No1 trader

Total Value$121.28

Total Shares201

Combined PnL+$7.92

Yes — 75%No — 25%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0ARB<$100	Noavg 61.1¢	$1.0K	$1.0K	-$1.92	52% 536-490 (1026)
└ No leg	Noavg 61.1¢	$747.74	$738.51	-$9.23
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 37.2¢	$254.15	$290.73	+$7.31
IstarothARB<$100	Noavg 61.2¢	$179.44	$172.68	-$5.98	49% 269-276 (545)
└ No leg	Noavg 61.2¢	$105.63	$104.15	-$1.48
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 42.2¢	$72.94	$68.53	-$4.5
HE HellYeahTraderCTR	Yesavg 38.2¢	$150.47	$156.5	+$6.03	55% 151-124 (275)
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed	Noavg 57.7¢	$225.45	$121.28	+$7.92	54% 4556-3891 (8447)
0X 0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658CTR<$100	Yesavg 39.6¢	$24.01	$24.06	+$0.06	47% 67-77 (144)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Yesavg 40.8¢	$3.26	$3.17	-$0.09	56% 10604-8367 (18971)

0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0ARB<$100

Invested

$1,031.17

Value

$1.0K

PnL

-$1.92

Record

52%

536-490 (1026)

Both legs:

No$747.7461.1¢-$9.23

Yes$254.1537.2¢+$7.31

IstarothARB<$100

Invested

$179.44

Value

$172.68

PnL

-$5.98

Record

49%

269-276 (545)

Both legs:

Invested

$150.47

Value

$156.5

PnL

+$6.03

Record

55%

151-124 (275)

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed

Invested

$225.45

Value

$121.28

PnL

+$7.92

Record

54%

4556-3891 (8447)

0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$24.01

Value

$24.06

PnL

+$0.06

Record

47%

67-77 (144)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.26

Value

$3.17

PnL

-$0.09

Record

56%

10604-8367 (18971)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 38%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Side priced 30–50¢0.30–0.50 lost −6.5 % a trade pooled (n 2,793), a little worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 4 top traders (75%)Underdog side (market favors No 63%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance39.7%

37.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$151.99

Max Loss

-$100.00

252.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.