Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 78-79°F on October 26?

1 of 2 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (50%) · Yes at 58¢ · $716 held · ended Oct 26

Yes58¢No42¢Ended Mon, Oct 26, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 50%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$715.88

Combined PnL

$126.84

Research grade

NeutralYes at 58%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢0.50–0.70 lost −3.2 % a trade pooled (n 3,834).

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

1 of 2 top traders (50%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes58%

No42%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes1 trader

Total Value$451.23

Total Shares820

Combined PnL+$126.99

No1 trader

Total Value$2.14

Total Shares5

Combined PnL-$0.15

Yes — 50%No — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0	Yesavg 39.5¢	$324.24	$451.23	+$126.99	52% 544-494 (1038)
IstarothARB<$100	Noavg 56.7¢	$162.33	$157.97	-$1.16	44% 269-349 (618)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 44.1¢	$69.68	$91.62	+$21.96
└ No leg	Noavg 56.7¢	$89.53	$66.35	-$23.12
24 241532532432ARB<$100	Noavg 48.3¢	$111.2	$104.54	-$6.65	64% 1409-791 (2200)
└ No leg	Noavg 48.3¢	$79.55	$69.23	-$10.32
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 52¢	$31.64	$35.31	+$3.67
0X 0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658CTR<$100	Noavg 45¢	$2.3	$2.14	-$0.15	46% 88-102 (190)

0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0

Yes

Invested

$324.24

Value

$451.23

PnL

+$126.99

Record

52%

544-494 (1038)

IstarothARB<$100

Invested

$162.33

Value

$157.97

PnL

-$1.16

Record

44%

269-349 (618)

Both legs:

Yes$69.6844.1¢+$21.96

No$89.5356.7¢-$23.12

241532532432ARB<$100

Invested

$111.2

Value

$104.54

PnL

-$6.65

Record

64%

1409-791 (2200)

Both legs:

No$79.5548.3¢-$10.32

Yes$31.6452¢+$3.67

0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658CTR<$100

Invested

$2.3

Value

$2.14

PnL

-$0.15

Record

46%

88-102 (190)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 58%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢0.50–0.70 lost −3.2 % a trade pooled (n 3,834).

Smart Money Signal

Yes

1 of 2 top traders (50%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance60.2%

58.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$66.09

Max Loss

-$100.00

166.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.