Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 80-81°F on October 25?

3 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (75%) · Yes at 62¢ · $236 held · ends Oct 25

Yes62¢No38¢Ends Sun, Oct 25, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 75%

Total Value

$235.67

Combined PnL

$3.69

Smart Money Entry

57.7¢ → 62¢

+7% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 62%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 4 top traders (75%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes62%

No38%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes3 traders

Total Value$228.74

Total Shares347

Combined PnL+$17.9

No1 trader

Total Value$6.93

Total Shares18

Combined PnL-$14.21

Yes — 75%No — 25%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HE HellYeahTrader	Yesavg 61.9¢	$147.02	$156.68	+$9.66	56% 105-82 (187)
fildoro<$100	Yesavg 46¢	$41.35	$59.33	+$7.19	60% 339-230 (569)
GH ghorrock<$100	Yesavg 60.6¢	$11.68	$12.72	+$1.05	65% 6456-3411 (9867)
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR<$100	Noavg 41.1¢	$76.51	$6.93	-$14.21	56% 3177-2515 (5692)

HellYeahTrader

Yes

Invested

$147.02

Value

$156.68

PnL

+$9.66

Record

56%

105-82 (187)

fildoro<$100

Yes

Invested

$41.35

Value

$59.33

PnL

+$7.19

Record

60%

339-230 (569)

ghorrock<$100

Yes

Invested

$11.68

Value

$12.72

PnL

+$1.05

Record

65%

6456-3411 (9867)

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR<$100

Invested

$76.51

Value

$6.93

PnL

-$14.21

Record

56%

3177-2515 (5692)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 62%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 4 top traders (75%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance64.2%

62.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$55.85

Max Loss

-$100.00

155.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.