Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 21°C on October 27?
5 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 96¢ · $117 held · ends Oct 27
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 100%
$117.15
$3.42
96.4¢ → 96.4¢
+0% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 96%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 5 top traders (100%)5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 95.8¢ | $67.27 | $56.34 | +$2.32 | 56% 10997-8571 (19568) |
 balthazar<$100 | Noavg 99.6¢ | $30.37 | $30.01 | -$0.36 | 63% 16296-9616 (25912) |
CE 0xce0b...b974<$100 | Noavg 94¢ | $18.8 | $19.88 | +$1.08 | — |
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed<$100 | Noavg 92.1¢ | $5.32 | $5.75 | +$0.42 | 54% 4740-4091 (8831) |
0X 0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100 | Noavg 98¢ | $5.22 | $5.17 | -$0.04 | 47% 68-78 (146) |
Invested
$67.27
Value
$56.34
PnL
+$2.32
Record
56%
10997-8571 (19568)
balthazar<$100Invested
$30.37
Value
$30.01
PnL
-$0.36
Record
63%
16296-9616 (25912)
Invested
$18.8
Value
$19.88
PnL
+$1.08
Record
—
Invested
$5.32
Value
$5.75
PnL
+$0.42
Record
54%
4740-4091 (8831)
Invested
$5.22
Value
$5.17
PnL
-$0.04
Record
47%
68-78 (146)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
96.4¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.