Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 20°C on October 27?

4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (80%) · No at 94¢ · $87 held · ends Oct 27

Yes6¢No94¢Ends Tue, Oct 27, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 80%

Total Value

$87.17

Combined PnL

-$20.74

Research grade

NeutralNo at 94%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes6%

No94%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No4 traders

Total Value$63.46

Total Shares66

Combined PnL+$1.2

Yes1 trader

Total Value$23.72

Total Shares392

Combined PnL-$21.93

No — 80%Yes — 20%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed<$100	Noavg 87¢	$33.46	$25.14	+$1.5	54% 4873-4188 (9061)
24 241532532432CTR<$100	Yesavg 11.6¢	$45.65	$23.72	-$21.93	64% 1409-791 (2200)
Istaroth<$100	Noavg 85¢	$20.02	$19.16	-$0.86	44% 269-349 (618)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 86.4¢	$22.95	$9.75	+$0.78	56% 11211-8688 (19899)
0X 0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100	Noavg 93.6¢	$9.63	$9.42	-$0.22	46% 88-102 (190)

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed<$100

Invested

$33.46

Value

$25.14

PnL

+$1.5

Record

54%

4873-4188 (9061)

241532532432CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$45.65

Value

$23.72

PnL

-$21.93

Record

64%

1409-791 (2200)

Istaroth<$100

Invested

$20.02

Value

$19.16

PnL

-$0.86

Record

44%

269-349 (618)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$22.95

Value

$9.75

PnL

+$0.78

Record

56%

11211-8688 (19899)

0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100

Invested

$9.63

Value

$9.42

PnL

-$0.22

Record

46%

88-102 (190)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 94%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance95.6%

94.3¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$4.63

Max Loss

-$100.00

104.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.