Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (61%). 2 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 19°C on October 27?

2 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (33%) · Yes at 40¢ · $449 held · ends Oct 27

Yes40¢No60¢Ends Tue, Oct 27, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 33%

Total Value

$449.19

Combined PnL

-$74.09

Smart Money Entry

56¢ → 39.5¢

-29% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 40%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢0.30–0.50 lost −6.5 % a trade pooled (n 2,793), a little worse than the plain consensus.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

2 of 6 top traders (33%)Underdog side (market favors No 61%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes40%

No61%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes2 traders

Total Value$328.26

Total Shares626

Combined PnL-$76.39

No4 traders

Total Value$120.93

Total Shares161

Combined PnL+$2.3

Yes — 33%No — 67%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0CTR	Yesavg 59.6¢	$362.66	$286.68	-$75.98	52% 538-490 (1028)
Istaroth<$100	Noavg 61.4¢	$59.61	$58.84	-$0.37	49% 269-278 (547)
CE 0xce0b...b974CTR<$100	Yesavg 38.9¢	$41.99	$41.58	-$0.41	—
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed<$100	Noavg 61¢	$28.87	$28.87	-$0	54% 4740-4091 (8831)
balthazar<$100	Noavg 57¢	$17.1	$18.3	+$1.2	63% 16296-9616 (25912)
HE hello.67<$100	Noavg 55¢	$13.45	$14.92	+$1.47	50% 1585-1572 (3157)

0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0CTR

Yes

Invested

$362.66

Value

$286.68

PnL

-$75.98

Record

52%

538-490 (1028)

Istaroth<$100

Invested

$59.61

Value

$58.84

PnL

-$0.37

Record

49%

269-278 (547)

0xce0b...b974CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$41.99

Value

$41.58

PnL

-$0.41

Record

—

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed<$100

Invested

$28.87

Value

$28.87

PnL

-$0

Record

54%

4740-4091 (8831)

balthazar<$100

Invested

$17.1

Value

$18.3

PnL

+$1.2

Record

63%

16296-9616 (25912)

hello.67<$100

Invested

$13.45

Value

$14.92

PnL

+$1.47

Record

50%

1585-1572 (3157)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 40%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢0.30–0.50 lost −6.5 % a trade pooled (n 2,793), a little worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

2 of 6 top traders (33%)Underdog side (market favors No 61%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance41.7%

39.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$139.78

Max Loss

-$100.00

239.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.