Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 18°C on October 27?

4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (67%) · No at 63¢ · $387 held · ends Oct 27

Yes37¢No63¢Ends Tue, Oct 27, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 67%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$386.87

Combined PnL

$28.31

Smart Money Entry

56.7¢ → 63¢

+11% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 63%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 6 top traders (67%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes37%

No63%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No4 traders

Total Value$294.7

Total Shares444

Combined PnL+$26.76

Yes2 traders

Total Value$12.16

Total Shares33

Combined PnL+$1.55

No — 67%Yes — 33%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0	Noavg 55.9¢	$216.41	$243.8	+$27.39	52% 538-490 (1028)
IstarothARB<$100	Noavg 62.7¢	$82.63	$80	-$0.63	49% 269-278 (547)
└ No leg	Noavg 62.7¢	$50.2	$50.4	+$0.2
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 38.1¢	$30.49	$29.6	-$0.83
balthazar<$100	Noavg 65¢	$35.5	$33.7	-$1.8	63% 16296-9616 (25912)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 59¢	$10.8	$11.53	+$0.73	56% 10997-8571 (19568)
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR<$100	Yesavg 41¢	$86.38	$6.13	+$2.37	54% 4740-4091 (8831)
0X 0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658CTR<$100	Yesavg 42¢	$6.85	$6.03	-$0.81	47% 68-78 (146)
HE hello.67<$100	Noavg 58¢	$5.23	$5.68	+$0.45	50% 1585-1572 (3157)

0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0

Invested

$216.41

Value

$243.8

PnL

+$27.39

Record

52%

538-490 (1028)

IstarothARB<$100

Invested

$82.63

Value

$80

PnL

-$0.63

Record

49%

269-278 (547)

Both legs:

No$50.262.7¢+$0.2

Yes$30.4938.1¢-$0.83

balthazar<$100

Invested

$35.5

Value

$33.7

PnL

-$1.8

Record

63%

16296-9616 (25912)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$10.8

Value

$11.53

PnL

+$0.73

Record

56%

10997-8571 (19568)

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$86.38

Value

$6.13

PnL

+$2.37

Record

54%

4740-4091 (8831)

0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$6.85

Value

$6.03

PnL

-$0.81

Record

47%

68-78 (146)

hello.67<$100

Invested

$5.23

Value

$5.68

PnL

+$0.45

Record

50%

1585-1572 (3157)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 63%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 6 top traders (67%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance65.2%

63.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$53.49

Max Loss

-$100.00

153.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.