Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 22°C on October 26?

4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (80%) · No at 98¢ · $161 held · ends Oct 26

Yes2¢No98¢Ends Mon, Oct 26, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 80%

Total Value

$160.6

Combined PnL

$2.2

Smart Money Entry

94.9¢ → 98.4¢

+4% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 98%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes2%

No98%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No4 traders

Total Value$160.03

Total Shares166

Combined PnL+$2.61

Yes1 trader

Total Value$0.56

Total Shares16

Combined PnL-$0.4

No — 80%Yes — 20%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100	Noavg 94.2¢	$76.72	$78.63	+$1.91	47% 68-78 (146)
balthazar<$100	Noavg 97.4¢	$57.5	$56.17	-$1.33	63% 16296-9616 (25912)
AJ AJSV<$100	Noavg 92.4¢	$16.06	$16.77	+$0.71	36% 13723-24173 (37896)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 89.4¢	$22.61	$8.47	+$1.32	56% 10997-8571 (19568)
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR<$100	Yesavg 6¢	$0.97	$0.56	-$0.4	54% 4740-4091 (8831)

0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100

Invested

$76.72

Value

$78.63

PnL

+$1.91

Record

47%

68-78 (146)

balthazar<$100

Invested

$57.5

Value

$56.17

PnL

-$1.33

Record

63%

16296-9616 (25912)

AJSV<$100

Invested

$16.06

Value

$16.77

PnL

+$0.71

Record

36%

13723-24173 (37896)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$22.61

Value

$8.47

PnL

+$1.32

Record

56%

10997-8571 (19568)

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.97

Value

$0.56

PnL

-$0.4

Record

54%

4740-4091 (8831)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 98%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.4%

98.4¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.57

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.