Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 20°C on October 26?
2 of 2 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (100%) · Yes at 54¢ · $347 held · ends Oct 26
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
2
Yes 100%
1 arb excluded
$347.06
-$8.97
58¢ → 54¢
-7% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 54%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢0.50–0.70 lost −3.2 % a trade pooled (n 3,834).
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 2 top traders (100%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023 | Yesavg 57¢ | $22.85 | $153.46 | -$5.99 | 52% 64-60 (124) |
HE HellYeahTrader | Yesavg 59.2¢ | $146.25 | $143.27 | -$2.98 | 55% 134-108 (242) |
 IstarothARB<$100 | Yesavg 59.6¢ | $51.39 | $50.34 | -$0.65 | 53% 269-238 (507) |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 59.6¢ | $30 | $27.18 | -$2.82 | |
| └ No leg | Noavg 41.6¢ | $20.94 | $23.16 | +$2.17 |
Invested
$22.85
Value
$153.46
PnL
-$5.99
Record
52%
64-60 (124)
Invested
$146.25
Value
$143.27
PnL
-$2.98
Record
55%
134-108 (242)
IstarothARB<$100Invested
$51.39
Value
$50.34
PnL
-$0.65
Record
53%
269-238 (507)
Both legs:
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
54.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.