Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (51%). 4 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 62-63°F on October 26?
4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (67%) · No at 50¢ · $469 held · ends Oct 26
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 67%
$468.56
-$16.47
58.4¢ → 49.5¢
-15% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 50%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Side priced 30–50¢0.30–0.50 lost −6.5 % a trade pooled (n 2,793), a little worse than the plain consensus.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 6 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 51%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98CTR | Noavg 64¢ | $177.05 | $159.05 | -$18 | 48% 505-558 (1063) |
 balthazarCTR | Noavg 51.1¢ | $102.25 | $114.99 | +$12.74 | 63% 16296-9616 (25912) |
HE HellYeahTrader | Yesavg 46.9¢ | $118.26 | $107.1 | -$11.16 | 55% 152-125 (277) |
 IstarothCTR<$100 | Noavg 57.1¢ | $83.78 | $80.78 | -$0.96 | 49% 269-278 (547) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Yesavg 35.8¢ | $4.51 | $5.36 | +$0.85 | 56% 10997-8571 (19568) |
0X 0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658CTR<$100 | Noavg 55¢ | $1.22 | $1.28 | +$0.06 | 47% 68-78 (146) |
Invested
$177.05
Value
$159.05
PnL
-$18
Record
48%
505-558 (1063)
balthazarCTRInvested
$102.25
Value
$114.99
PnL
+$12.74
Record
63%
16296-9616 (25912)
Invested
$118.26
Value
$107.1
PnL
-$11.16
Record
55%
152-125 (277)
IstarothCTR<$100Invested
$83.78
Value
$80.78
PnL
-$0.96
Record
49%
269-278 (547)
Invested
$4.51
Value
$5.36
PnL
+$0.85
Record
56%
10997-8571 (19568)
Invested
$1.22
Value
$1.28
PnL
+$0.06
Record
47%
68-78 (146)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
49.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.