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Yes
balthazar<$100NoYesYesNoNo
Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Yes — but No won instead.
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 76-77°F on October 25?
Resolved No. 50% of the top Polymarket traders held Yes. The smart money was wrong.
RESOLVED
💀
Lost
Consensus Traders
6
Yes 100%
Total Value
$0
Combined PnL
-$270.79
Smart Money Signal
Yes
3 of 6 top traders (50%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Market Activity
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Outcome Probabilities
Yes0%
No100%
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Yes3 traders
Total Value$0
Total Shares873
Combined PnL-$270.79
No3 traders
Total Value$0
Total Shares0
Combined PnL+$0
Yes — 50%No — 50%
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98CTR | Yesavg 34.1¢ | $245.63 | — | -$270.79 | 48% 505-558 (1063) |
balthazar<$100 | Noavg 99.8¢ | — | — | +$0 | 63% 15568-9006 (24574) |
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR<$100 | Yesavg 6¢ | — | — | +$0 | 54% 4556-3891 (8447) |
GH ghorrockCTR<$100 | Yesavg 43¢ | — | — | +$0 | 56% 10604-8367 (18971) |
HE HellYeahTrader<$100 | Noavg 94¢ | — | — | +$0 | 55% 151-124 (275) |
AJ AJSV<$100 | Noavg 99.3¢ | — | — | +$0 | 36% 13604-23855 (37459) |
0X
0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98CTRInvested
$245.63
Value
—
PnL
-$270.79
Record
48%
505-558 (1063)
balthazar<$100Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
63%
15568-9006 (24574)
CB
Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR<$100Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
54%
4556-3891 (8447)
GH
ghorrockCTR<$100Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
56%
10604-8367 (18971)
HE
HellYeahTrader<$100Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
55%
151-124 (275)
AJ
AJSV<$100Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
36%
13604-23855 (37459)
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Market Info
Condition ID
0x0df600ac...1f5241
Slug
highest-temperature-in-chicago-on-october-25-2026-76-77f