Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 74-75°F on October 25?
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (80%) · Yes at 51¢ · $638 held · ends Oct 25
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
5
Yes 80%
$637.68
$135.89
35.7¢ → 50.5¢
+41% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 51%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Side priced 50–60¢0.50–0.70 lost −3.2 % a trade pooled (n 3,834).
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Building
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 87%
Freshness
Mature
28h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
80% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 87% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98 | Yesavg 31.9¢ | $226.94 | $362.74 | +$135.8 | 48% 480-525 (1005) |
HE HellYeahTraderCTR | Noavg 53.2¢ | $144.56 | $144.56 | +$0 | 56% 105-82 (187) |
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed | Yesavg 49.6¢ | $119.45 | $68.04 | -$5.79 | 56% 3177-2515 (5692) |
 fildoro<$100 | Yesavg 41¢ | $42.12 | $49.31 | +$4.62 | 60% 339-230 (569) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Yesavg 44.3¢ | $15.35 | $13.03 | +$1.27 | 65% 6456-3411 (9867) |
Invested
$226.94
Value
$362.74
PnL
+$135.8
Record
48%
480-525 (1005)
Invested
$144.56
Value
$144.56
PnL
+$0
Record
56%
105-82 (187)
Invested
$119.45
Value
$68.04
PnL
-$5.79
Record
56%
3177-2515 (5692)
fildoro<$100Invested
$42.12
Value
$49.31
PnL
+$4.62
Record
60%
339-230 (569)
Invested
$15.35
Value
$13.03
PnL
+$1.27
Record
65%
6456-3411 (9867)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
50.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.