Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 21°C on October 27?
2 of 2 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 96¢ · $117 held · ends Oct 27
⚖️
Neutral
No
2
No 100%
$116.7
-$21.96
90.5¢ → 96¢
+6% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 96%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 2 top traders (100%)2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
24 241532532432<$100 | Noavg 93¢ | $99.96 | $84.2 | -$15.76 | 61% 1497-943 (2440) |
 Istaroth<$100 | Noavg 84¢ | $38.93 | $32.5 | -$6.2 | 36% 273-477 (750) |
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
96.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.