Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (82%). 1 of 4 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 21°C on October 26?

1 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (25%) · Yes at 19¢ · $590 held · ends Oct 26

Yes19¢No81¢Ends Mon, Oct 26, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 25%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$589.57

Combined PnL

$86.12

Research grade

AvoidYes at 19%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.

Consensus side under 30¢Longshots (0.05–0.30) lost −29.5 % a trade pooled (n 1,625; −22 % in spring, −35 % in October): the strongest effect in the backtests.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

1 of 4 top traders (25%)Underdog side (market favors No 82%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes19%

No82%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes1 trader

Total Value$355.75

Total Shares868

Combined PnL+$61.08

No3 traders

Total Value$143.59

Total Shares185

Combined PnL+$25.04

Yes — 25%No — 75%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98CTR	Yesavg 25¢	$161.91	$355.75	+$61.08	48% 505-558 (1063)
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed	Noavg 60.7¢	$172.02	$110.61	+$29.24	54% 4740-4091 (8831)
IstarothARB<$100	Noavg 63.7¢	$97.98	$90.24	-$7.36	49% 269-276 (545)
└ No leg	Noavg 63.7¢	$61.83	$50.46	-$11.38
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 36.8¢	$35.66	$39.79	+$4.03
0X 0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100	Noavg 63.8¢	$16.23	$17.98	+$1.76	47% 68-78 (146)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 72.5¢	$22.92	$14.99	-$5.95	56% 10997-8571 (19568)

0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98CTR

Yes

Invested

$161.91

Value

$355.75

PnL

+$61.08

Record

48%

505-558 (1063)

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed

Invested

$172.02

Value

$110.61

PnL

+$29.24

Record

54%

4740-4091 (8831)

IstarothARB<$100

Invested

$97.98

Value

$90.24

PnL

-$7.36

Record

49%

269-276 (545)

Both legs:

No$61.8363.7¢-$11.38

Yes$35.6636.8¢+$4.03

0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100

Invested

$16.23

Value

$17.98

PnL

+$1.76

Record

47%

68-78 (146)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$22.92

Value

$14.99

PnL

-$5.95

Record

56%

10997-8571 (19568)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 19%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.

Consensus side under 30¢Longshots (0.05–0.30) lost −29.5 % a trade pooled (n 1,625; −22 % in spring, −35 % in October): the strongest effect in the backtests.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

1 of 4 top traders (25%)Underdog side (market favors No 82%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance20.3%

18.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$392.98

Max Loss

-$100.00

493.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.