Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (69%). 3 of 3 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 20°C on October 26?
3 of 3 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 31¢ · $128 held · ends Oct 26
⚖️
Neutral
No
3
No 100%
1 arb excluded
$127.66
-$4.11
Research grade
NeutralNo at 31%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Side priced 30–50¢0.30–0.50 lost −6.5 % a trade pooled (n 2,793), a little worse than the plain consensus.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 3 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 69%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 IstarothARB<$100 | Yesavg 57.3¢ | $118.64 | $104.99 | -$2.56 | 49% 269-276 (545) |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 57.3¢ | $60.15 | $72.44 | +$12.29 | |
| └ No leg | Noavg 46.4¢ | $48.73 | $32.55 | -$14.85 | |
GH ghorrockCTR<$100 | Noavg 60.5¢ | $15.83 | $8.52 | -$5.61 | 56% 10500-8289 (18789) |
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR | Noavg 52.3¢ | $130.43 | $7.1 | +$2.69 | 54% 4513-3843 (8356) |
0X 0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658CTR<$100 | Noavg 48.5¢ | $8.24 | $7.05 | -$1.19 | 47% 67-77 (144) |
IstarothARB<$100Invested
$118.64
Value
$104.99
PnL
-$2.56
Record
49%
269-276 (545)
Both legs:
Invested
$15.83
Value
$8.52
PnL
-$5.61
Record
56%
10500-8289 (18789)
Invested
$130.43
Value
$7.1
PnL
+$2.69
Record
54%
4513-3843 (8356)
Invested
$8.24
Value
$7.05
PnL
-$1.19
Record
47%
67-77 (144)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
31.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.