Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (85%). 2 of 4 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 22°C on October 26?

2 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (50%) · Yes at 15¢ · $547 held · ends Oct 26

Yes15¢No85¢Ends Mon, Oct 26, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 50%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$546.82

Combined PnL

-$132.47

Smart Money Entry

32.7¢ → 15¢

-54% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

AvoidYes at 15%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.

Consensus side under 30¢Longshots (0.05–0.30) lost −29.5 % a trade pooled (n 1,625; −22 % in spring, −35 % in October): the strongest effect in the backtests.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

2 of 4 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors No 85%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes15%

No85%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No2 traders

Total Value$272.63

Total Shares354

Combined PnL+$10.32

Yes2 traders

Total Value$187.08

Total Shares1,009

Combined PnL-$142.79

No — 50%Yes — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HE HellYeahTrader	Noavg 62.3¢	$150.78	$186.39	+$1.72	55% 152-125 (277)
0X 0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0CTR	Yesavg 32.8¢	$328.78	$185.32	-$143.47	52% 538-490 (1028)
IstarothARB<$100	Noavg 73¢	$89.22	$87.11	-$0.84	49% 269-278 (547)
└ No leg	Noavg 73¢	$63.57	$67.07	+$3.49
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 27.3¢	$23.8	$20.04	-$4.33
24 241532532432<$100	Noavg 68.8¢	$77.08	$86.24	+$8.6	—
0X 0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658CTR<$100	Yesavg 14.2¢	$1.09	$1.76	+$0.68	47% 68-78 (146)

HellYeahTrader

Invested

$150.78

Value

$186.39

PnL

+$1.72

Record

55%

152-125 (277)

0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0CTR

Yes

Invested

$328.78

Value

$185.32

PnL

-$143.47

Record

52%

538-490 (1028)

IstarothARB<$100

Invested

$89.22

Value

$87.11

PnL

-$0.84

Record

49%

269-278 (547)

Both legs:

No$63.5773¢+$3.49

Yes$23.827.3¢-$4.33

241532532432<$100

Invested

$77.08

Value

$86.24

PnL

+$8.6

Record

—

0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.09

Value

$1.76

PnL

+$0.68

Record

47%

68-78 (146)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 15%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.

Consensus side under 30¢Longshots (0.05–0.30) lost −29.5 % a trade pooled (n 1,625; −22 % in spring, −35 % in October): the strongest effect in the backtests.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

2 of 4 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors No 85%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance16.7%

15.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$499.81

Max Loss

-$100.00

599.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.