Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (51%). 2 of 2 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 21°C on October 26?
2 of 2 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (100%) · Yes at 49¢ · $643 held · ends Oct 26
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
2
Yes 100%
1 arb excluded
$642.78
$99.56
39.6¢ → 49.2¢
+24% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 49%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Side priced 30–50¢0.30–0.50 lost −6.5 % a trade pooled (n 2,793), a little worse than the plain consensus.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 2 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 51%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0CTR | Yesavg 37¢ | $321.58 | $427.52 | +$99.56 | 52% 525-482 (1007) |
HE HellYeahTraderCTR | Yesavg 49.2¢ | $112.08 | $112.08 | +$0 | 55% 137-110 (247) |
 IstarothARB<$100 | Yesavg 60.5¢ | $117.9 | $103.18 | -$13.71 | 52% 269-246 (515) |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 60.5¢ | $69.93 | $56.93 | -$13.07 | |
| └ No leg | Noavg 40.6¢ | $46.89 | $46.25 | -$0.64 |
Invested
$321.58
Value
$427.52
PnL
+$99.56
Record
52%
525-482 (1007)
Invested
$112.08
Value
$112.08
PnL
+$0
Record
55%
137-110 (247)
IstarothARB<$100Invested
$117.9
Value
$103.18
PnL
-$13.71
Record
52%
269-246 (515)
Both legs:
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
49.2¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.