Will the highest temperature in Busan be 21°C on October 27?

3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (60%) · No at 85¢ · $548 held · ends Oct 27

Yes15¢No85¢Ends Tue, Oct 27, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 60%

Total Value

$548.12

Combined PnL

$11.82

Smart Money Entry

80.3¢ → 85¢

+6% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 85%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes15%

No85%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes2 traders

Total Value$220.24

Total Shares1,111

Combined PnL+$24.63

No3 traders

Total Value$327.88

Total Shares402

Combined PnL-$12.81

Yes — 40%No — 60%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0CTR	Yesavg 18.2¢	$158.72	$170.38	+$11.66	52% 544-497 (1041)
HE HellYeahTrader	Noavg 83¢	$152.08	$141.09	-$10.99	56% 171-137 (308)
balthazar	Noavg 77.6¢	$108.59	$107.8	-$0.79	62% 18410-11080 (29490)
Istaroth<$100	Noavg 78.7¢	$80.79	$78.99	-$1.03	43% 269-355 (624)
24 241532532432CTR<$100	Yesavg 22.8¢	$33.33	$49.86	+$12.97	61% 1454-917 (2371)

0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0CTR

Yes

Invested

$158.72

Value

$170.38

PnL

+$11.66

Record

52%

544-497 (1041)

HellYeahTrader

Invested

$152.08

Value

$141.09

PnL

-$10.99

Record

56%

171-137 (308)

balthazar

Invested

$108.59

Value

$107.8

PnL

-$0.79

Record

62%

18410-11080 (29490)

Istaroth<$100

Invested

$80.79

Value

$78.99

PnL

-$1.03

Record

43%

269-355 (624)

241532532432CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$33.33

Value

$49.86

PnL

+$12.97

Record

61%

1454-917 (2371)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 85%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance86.6%

85.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$15.47

Max Loss

-$100.00

115.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.