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Yes
balthazar<$100NoNoYesYes
IstarothCTR<$100YesNo
Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Yes — but No won instead.
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 22°C on October 26?
Resolved No. 57% of the top Polymarket traders held Yes. The smart money was wrong.
RESOLVED
💀
Lost
Consensus Traders
7
Yes 100%
Total Value
$0
Combined PnL
-$148.65
Smart Money Signal
Yes
4 of 7 top traders (57%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Market Activity
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Outcome Probabilities
Yes0%
No100%
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Yes4 traders
Total Value$0
Total Shares355
Combined PnL-$148.65
No3 traders
Total Value$0
Total Shares0
Combined PnL+$0
Yes — 57%No — 43%
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HE HellYeahTraderCTR | Yesavg 41.9¢ | $148.47 | — | -$148.65 | 56% 171-137 (308) |
balthazar<$100 | Noavg 54¢ | — | — | +$0 | 62% 18200-10969 (29169) |
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed<$100 | Noavg 96¢ | — | — | +$0 | 53% 5561-4835 (10396) |
0X 0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98CTR<$100 | Yesavg 33¢ | — | — | +$0 | 46% 523-607 (1130) |
GH ghorrockCTR<$100 | Yesavg 38.3¢ | — | — | +$0 | 57% 11904-9099 (21003) |
IstarothCTR<$100 | Yesavg 29.2¢ | — | — | +$0 | 43% 269-355 (624) |
AJ AJSV<$100 | Noavg 65.3¢ | — | — | +$0 | 36% 13957-24692 (38649) |
HE
HellYeahTraderCTRInvested
$148.47
Value
—
PnL
-$148.65
Record
56%
171-137 (308)
balthazar<$100Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
62%
18200-10969 (29169)
CB
Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed<$100Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
53%
5561-4835 (10396)
0X
0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98CTR<$100Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
46%
523-607 (1130)
GH
ghorrockCTR<$100Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
57%
11904-9099 (21003)
IstarothCTR<$100Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
43%
269-355 (624)
AJ
AJSV<$100Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
36%
13957-24692 (38649)
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Market Info
Condition ID
0x60b87235...2b1ced
Slug
highest-temperature-in-busan-on-october-26-2026-22c