Will the highest temperature in Busan be 21°C on October 26?
Positions of the top Polymarket traders in this market · ends Oct 26
⚖️
Neutral
No
1
No 100%
2 arb excluded
$998.87
$14.15
Research grade
NeutralNo at 77%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
1 of 1 top traders (100%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98ARB<$100 | Noavg 67.6¢ | $761.02 | $799.87 | +$57.58 | 47% 504-558 (1062) |
| └ No leg | Noavg 67.6¢ | $417.17 | $475.22 | +$33.46 | |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 25.6¢ | $319.26 | $324.65 | +$24.12 | |
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed | Noavg 69.1¢ | $128.37 | $116.07 | +$14.15 | 54% 4489-3820 (8309) |
 IstarothARB<$100 | Noavg 74¢ | $87.7 | $82.93 | +$0.09 | 50% 269-269 (538) |
| └ No leg | Noavg 74¢ | $59.56 | $62 | +$2.41 | |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 28.5¢ | $22.94 | $20.93 | -$2.32 |
Invested
$761.02
Value
$799.87
PnL
+$57.58
Record
47%
504-558 (1062)
Both legs:
Invested
$128.37
Value
$116.07
PnL
+$14.15
Record
54%
4489-3820 (8309)
IstarothARB<$100Invested
$87.7
Value
$82.93
PnL
+$0.09
Record
50%
269-269 (538)
Both legs:
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
77.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.