Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (78%). 1 of 3 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 19°C on October 26?
1 of 3 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (33%) · Yes at 22¢ · $158 held · ends Oct 26
⚠️
Avoid
Yes
3
Yes 33%
$158.43
-$27.55
Research grade
AvoidYes at 22%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Longshots (0.05–0.30) lost −29.5 % a trade pooled (n 1,625; −22 % in spring, −35 % in October): the strongest effect in the backtests.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
1 of 3 top traders (33%)Underdog side (market favors No 78%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98CTR | Yesavg 31¢ | $161.17 | $132.53 | -$28.64 | 47% 502-558 (1060) |
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed<$100 | Noavg 78¢ | $15.58 | $15.58 | +$0 | 56% 3466-2703 (6169) |
AJ AJSV<$100 | Noavg 69.8¢ | $9.23 | $10.32 | +$1.09 | 36% 13289-23211 (36500) |
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
22.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.