Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (57%). 2 of 4 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 18°C on October 26?

2 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (50%) · Yes at 43¢ · $577 held · ends Oct 26

Yes43¢No57¢Ends Mon, Oct 26, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 50%

Total Value

$576.87

Combined PnL

$34.14

Smart Money Entry

40.2¢ → 43¢

+7% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 43%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢0.30–0.50 lost −6.5 % a trade pooled (n 2,793), a little worse than the plain consensus.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

2 of 4 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors No 57%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes43%

No57%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes2 traders

Total Value$522.84

Total Shares1,216

Combined PnL+$34.23

No2 traders

Total Value$54.03

Total Shares95

Combined PnL-$0.09

Yes — 50%No — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98CTR	Yesavg 38.6¢	$282.41	$314.8	+$32.39	47% 502-558 (1060)
HE hello.67CTR	Yesavg 42.6¢	$206.2	$208.04	+$1.84	50% 1575-1562 (3137)
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed<$100	Noavg 57.3¢	$46.85	$46.62	-$0.23	56% 3466-2703 (6169)
AJ AJSV<$100	Noavg 55.9¢	$7.27	$7.41	+$0.14	36% 13289-23211 (36500)

0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98CTR

Yes

Invested

$282.41

Value

$314.8

PnL

+$32.39

Record

47%

502-558 (1060)

hello.67CTR

Yes

Invested

$206.2

Value

$208.04

PnL

+$1.84

Record

50%

1575-1562 (3137)

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed<$100

Invested

$46.85

Value

$46.62

PnL

-$0.23

Record

56%

3466-2703 (6169)

AJSV<$100

Invested

$7.27

Value

$7.41

PnL

+$0.14

Record

36%

13289-23211 (36500)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 43%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢0.30–0.50 lost −6.5 % a trade pooled (n 2,793), a little worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

2 of 4 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors No 57%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance45.2%

43.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$121.08

Max Loss

-$100.00

221.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.