Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (74%). 1 of 2 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 17°C on October 26?
1 of 2 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (50%) · Yes at 26¢ · $427 held · ends Oct 26
⚠️
Avoid
Yes
2
Yes 50%
1 arb excluded
$426.98
$33.86
Research grade
AvoidYes at 26%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Longshots (0.05–0.30) lost −29.5 % a trade pooled (n 1,625; −22 % in spring, −35 % in October): the strongest effect in the backtests.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
1 of 2 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors No 74%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98CTR | Yesavg 21.4¢ | $199.68 | $234.47 | +$34.79 | 48% 505-558 (1063) |
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed | Noavg 74.6¢ | $116.07 | $107.74 | -$0.93 | 54% 4513-3843 (8356) |
 IstarothARB<$100 | Noavg 74.7¢ | $87.16 | $84.76 | -$0.48 | 49% 269-276 (545) |
| └ No leg | Noavg 74.7¢ | $63.31 | $62.73 | -$0.46 | |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 26¢ | $22.03 | $22.04 | -$0.02 |
Invested
$199.68
Value
$234.47
PnL
+$34.79
Record
48%
505-558 (1063)
Invested
$116.07
Value
$107.74
PnL
-$0.93
Record
54%
4513-3843 (8356)
IstarothARB<$100Invested
$87.16
Value
$84.76
PnL
-$0.48
Record
49%
269-276 (545)
Both legs:
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
26.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.