Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 16°C on October 27?

4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (80%) · Yes at 67¢ · $3K held · ends Oct 27

Yes67¢No33¢Ends Tue, Oct 27, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 80%

Total Value

$2.9K

Combined PnL

$109.49

Smart Money Entry

59.3¢ → 67¢

+13% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 67%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes67%

No33%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes4 traders

Total Value$2.8K

Total Shares4,607

Combined PnL+$102.28

No1 trader

Total Value$97.58

Total Shares227

Combined PnL+$7.21

Yes — 80%No — 20%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HE hello.67	Yesavg 59.9¢	$2.0K	$2.1K	+$70.86	50% 1604-1595 (3199)
0X 0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98	Yesavg 56.5¢	$457.44	$502	+$44.55	46% 523-607 (1130)
24 241532532432	Yesavg 59.5¢	$169.48	$162.47	-$7	61% 1454-917 (2371)
HE HellYeahTraderCTR<$100	Noavg 39.8¢	$90.37	$97.58	+$7.21	56% 171-137 (308)
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed<$100	Yesavg 61.9¢	$77.41	$71.28	-$6.13	53% 5695-4971 (10666)

hello.67

Yes

Invested

$2,029.31

Value

$2.1K

PnL

+$70.86

Record

50%

1604-1595 (3199)

0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98

Yes

Invested

$457.44

Value

$502

PnL

+$44.55

Record

46%

523-607 (1130)

241532532432

Yes

Invested

$169.48

Value

$162.47

PnL

-$7

Record

61%

1454-917 (2371)

HellYeahTraderCTR<$100

Invested

$90.37

Value

$97.58

PnL

+$7.21

Record

56%

171-137 (308)

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed<$100

Yes

Invested

$77.41

Value

$71.28

PnL

-$6.13

Record

53%

5695-4971 (10666)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 67%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance69.1%

67.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$44.74

Max Loss

-$100.00

144.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.