Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (76%). 2 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 19°C on October 26?

2 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (33%) · Yes at 24¢ · $497 held · ends Oct 26

Yes24¢No76¢Ends Mon, Oct 26, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 33%

Total Value

$496.84

Combined PnL

$76.43

Smart Money Entry

45.6¢ → 24¢

-47% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

AvoidYes at 24%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.

Consensus side under 30¢Longshots (0.05–0.30) lost −29.5 % a trade pooled (n 1,625; −22 % in spring, −35 % in October): the strongest effect in the backtests.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

2 of 6 top traders (33%)Underdog side (market favors No 76%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes24%

No76%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes2 traders

Total Value$243

Total Shares739

Combined PnL+$35.72

No4 traders

Total Value$253.83

Total Shares320

Combined PnL+$40.71

Yes — 33%No — 67%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98CTR	Yesavg 45.9¢	$196.66	$234.72	+$38.06	48% 505-558 (1063)
HE HellYeahTrader	Noavg 53.3¢	$147.22	$212.76	+$37.91	55% 151-124 (275)
Istaroth<$100	Noavg 65.8¢	$25.65	$27.51	+$2	49% 269-276 (545)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Yesavg 37.8¢	$10.63	$8.29	-$2.34	56% 10500-8289 (18789)
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed<$100	Noavg 69.8¢	$17.45	$7.75	+$1.4	54% 4513-3843 (8356)
0X 0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100	Noavg 77.7¢	$6.41	$5.81	-$0.6	47% 67-77 (144)

0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98CTR

Yes

Invested

$196.66

Value

$234.72

PnL

+$38.06

Record

48%

505-558 (1063)

HellYeahTrader

Invested

$147.22

Value

$212.76

PnL

+$37.91

Record

55%

151-124 (275)

Istaroth<$100

Invested

$25.65

Value

$27.51

PnL

+$2

Record

49%

269-276 (545)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$10.63

Value

$8.29

PnL

-$2.34

Record

56%

10500-8289 (18789)

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed<$100

Invested

$17.45

Value

$7.75

PnL

+$1.4

Record

54%

4513-3843 (8356)

0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100

Invested

$6.41

Value

$5.81

PnL

-$0.6

Record

47%

67-77 (144)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 24%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.

Consensus side under 30¢Longshots (0.05–0.30) lost −29.5 % a trade pooled (n 1,625; −22 % in spring, −35 % in October): the strongest effect in the backtests.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

2 of 6 top traders (33%)Underdog side (market favors No 76%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance25.9%

24.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$285.54

Max Loss

-$100.00

385.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.