Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (60%). 2 of 4 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 18°C on October 26?

2 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (50%) · Yes at 40¢ · $690 held · ends Oct 26

Yes40¢No60¢Ends Mon, Oct 26, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 50%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$689.88

Combined PnL

-$52.89

Smart Money Entry

31.1¢ → 40¢

+29% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 40%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢0.30–0.50 lost −6.5 % a trade pooled (n 2,793), a little worse than the plain consensus.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

2 of 4 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors No 60%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes40%

No60%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes2 traders

Total Value$566.6

Total Shares1,148

Combined PnL-$55.79

No2 traders

Total Value$30.7

Total Shares40

Combined PnL+$2.9

Yes — 50%No — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98CTR	Yesavg 31¢	$581.06	$535.25	-$45.81	48% 481-527 (1008)
IstarothARB<$100	Noavg 71.1¢	$107.89	$92.58	-$7.88	57% 263-196 (459)
└ No leg	Noavg 71.1¢	$65.87	$70.36	+$2.99
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 35.7¢	$33.09	$22.22	-$10.87
fildoroCTR<$100	Yesavg 31.6¢	$41.33	$31.35	-$9.98	60% 339-230 (569)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 66.5¢	$20.2	$23.1	+$2.9	65% 6460-3412 (9872)
0X 0xfBd8C9C22cA76B3662d0e53A4f79719FDC684027-1779347618060<$100	Noavg 76¢	$7.6	$7.6	+$0	65% 4147-2191 (6338)

0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98CTR

Yes

Invested

$581.06

Value

$535.25

PnL

-$45.81

Record

48%

481-527 (1008)

IstarothARB<$100

Invested

$107.89

Value

$92.58

PnL

-$7.88

Record

57%

263-196 (459)

Both legs:

No$65.8771.1¢+$2.99

Yes$33.0935.7¢-$10.87

fildoroCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$41.33

Value

$31.35

PnL

-$9.98

Record

60%

339-230 (569)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$20.2

Value

$23.1

PnL

+$2.9

Record

65%

6460-3412 (9872)

0xfBd8C9C22cA76B3662d0e53A4f79719FDC684027-1779347618060<$100

Invested

$7.6

Value

$7.6

PnL

+$0

Record

65%

4147-2191 (6338)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 40%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢0.30–0.50 lost −6.5 % a trade pooled (n 2,793), a little worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

2 of 4 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors No 60%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance42.2%

40.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$136.91

Max Loss

-$100.00

236.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.