Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 17°C on October 26?

4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (80%) · No at 100¢ · $121 held · ends Oct 26

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Mon, Oct 26, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 80%

Total Value

$121.44

Combined PnL

$19.73

Smart Money Entry

80.9¢ → 100¢

+24% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No4 traders

Total Value$116.2

Total Shares126

Combined PnL+$17.71

Yes1 trader

Total Value$5.24

Total Shares29

Combined PnL+$2.03

No — 80%Yes — 20%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed	Noavg 76.6¢	$111.11	$57.03	+$22.45	54% 4556-3891 (8447)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 89.6¢	$62.08	$26.29	-$2.95	56% 10604-8367 (18971)
Istaroth<$100	Noavg 78.7¢	$21.54	$19.37	-$1.8	49% 269-276 (545)
0X 0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100	Noavg 81.6¢	$13.5	$13.51	+$0.01	47% 67-77 (144)
HE HellYeahTraderCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.8¢	$2.81	$5.24	+$2.03	55% 151-124 (275)

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed

Invested

$111.11

Value

$57.03

PnL

+$22.45

Record

54%

4556-3891 (8447)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$62.08

Value

$26.29

PnL

-$2.95

Record

56%

10604-8367 (18971)

Istaroth<$100

Invested

$21.54

Value

$19.37

PnL

-$1.8

Record

49%

269-276 (545)

0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100

Invested

$13.5

Value

$13.51

PnL

+$0.01

Record

47%

67-77 (144)

HellYeahTraderCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.81

Value

$5.24

PnL

+$2.03

Record

55%

151-124 (275)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.