Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (66%). 2 of 4 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 82-83°F on October 26?
2 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold No (50%) · No at 35¢ · $720 held · ends Oct 26
⚖️
Neutral
No
4
No 50%
1 arb excluded
$719.93
-$14.22
55.4¢ → 34.5¢
-38% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 35%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 30–50¢0.30–0.50 lost −6.5 % a trade pooled (n 2,793), a little worse than the plain consensus.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 4 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 66%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98CTR | Noavg 54.8¢ | $416.95 | $425.12 | +$8.17 | 48% 505-558 (1063) |
HE hello.67CTR | Noavg 56¢ | $260.6 | $237.32 | -$23.28 | 50% 1585-1572 (3157) |
 IstarothARB<$100 | Yesavg 57¢ | $48.96 | $45.71 | -$0.99 | 49% 269-278 (547) |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 57¢ | $26.06 | $24.23 | -$1.83 | |
| └ No leg | Noavg 44¢ | $20.13 | $21.48 | +$0.84 | |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Yesavg 58.2¢ | $6.01 | $6.76 | +$0.75 | 56% 10997-8571 (19568) |
0X 0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100 | Yesavg 61¢ | $4.88 | $5.03 | +$0.15 | 47% 68-78 (146) |
Invested
$416.95
Value
$425.12
PnL
+$8.17
Record
48%
505-558 (1063)
Invested
$260.6
Value
$237.32
PnL
-$23.28
Record
50%
1585-1572 (3157)
IstarothARB<$100Invested
$48.96
Value
$45.71
PnL
-$0.99
Record
49%
269-278 (547)
Both legs:
Invested
$6.01
Value
$6.76
PnL
+$0.75
Record
56%
10997-8571 (19568)
Invested
$4.88
Value
$5.03
PnL
+$0.15
Record
47%
68-78 (146)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
34.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.