Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (70%). 4 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 80-81°F on October 26?

4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (80%) · Yes at 31¢ · $275 held · ends Oct 26

Yes31¢No69¢Ends Mon, Oct 26, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 80%

Total Value

$275.35

Combined PnL

-$18.85

Smart Money Entry

19.6¢ → 30.5¢

+56% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 31%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Side priced 30–50¢0.30–0.50 lost −6.5 % a trade pooled (n 2,793), a little worse than the plain consensus.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

4 of 5 top traders (80%)Underdog side (market favors No 70%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes31%

No70%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes4 traders

Total Value$235.35

Total Shares784

Combined PnL-$17.45

No1 trader

Total Value$40

Total Shares40

Combined PnL-$1.4

Yes — 80%No — 20%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98CTR	Yesavg 15.8¢	$49.58	$184.17	-$12.49	48% 505-558 (1063)
HE HellYeahTraderCTR<$100	Yesavg 33¢	$46.34	$42.12	-$4.21	55% 151-124 (275)
Istaroth<$100	Noavg 70.5¢	$41.4	$40	-$1.4	49% 269-276 (545)
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR<$100	Yesavg 33¢	$8.25	$7.5	-$0.75	54% 4513-3843 (8356)
0X 0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658CTR<$100	Yesavg 30¢	$1.56	$1.56	+$0	47% 67-77 (144)

0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98CTR

Yes

Invested

$49.58

Value

$184.17

PnL

-$12.49

Record

48%

505-558 (1063)

HellYeahTraderCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$46.34

Value

$42.12

PnL

-$4.21

Record

55%

151-124 (275)

Istaroth<$100

Invested

$41.4

Value

$40

PnL

-$1.4

Record

49%

269-276 (545)

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$8.25

Value

$7.5

PnL

-$0.75

Record

54%

4513-3843 (8356)

0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.56

Value

$1.56

PnL

+$0

Record

47%

67-77 (144)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 31%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Side priced 30–50¢0.30–0.50 lost −6.5 % a trade pooled (n 2,793), a little worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

4 of 5 top traders (80%)Underdog side (market favors No 70%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance32.6%

30.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$206.95

Max Loss

-$100.00

306.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.